November 21, 2014
A developing low will bring moderate to locally heavy rain to areas
from eastern KS to central and eastern Texas from Friday into Sunday.
This low will bring mainly rain, perhaps mixed with a little snow or
ice at the onset, to the Midwest from Friday night into Monday Both
the GFS and ECMWF look farther north and west with the track of the
low across the Midwest so went with a general 0.50-1.25 inches
(13-32mm) over the Midwest, but the heaviest rains will likely be
favored east of a Kansas City to lacrosse, WI line. Temperatures will
moderate from the Plains on eastward over the next few days with a
brief period of near to slightly above normal temperatures across the
Midwest this weekend. Chillier air will push into the Plains and
Midwest early next week in the wake of the system this weekend.
Scattered rain and snow showers are possible across Great Lakes and
eastern Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Chilly across the Midwest next
Wednesday and Thursday, while the Plains experience some moderation.
The ECMWF dropped the idea of a big storm crossing the Midwest later
next week with most modeling now showing a front spreading rain and
snow southeastward across the Plains and Midwest from Wednesday
through next Friday with light to moderate precipitation amounts. A
shot of chilly air will likely follow this front next weekend, then
temperatures are expected to moderate from west to east later in the
11-15 day period.
A disturbance will trigger scattered showers and storms from northern
BA and Cordoba on northward on Friday. Dry across much of the
Argentina croplands on Saturday. A cold front lifting northward across
Argentina will spread showers and storms northward from later Sunday
into Tuesday with widespread moderate rainfall. Dry weather will
return for Wednesday into Thursday. The next front looks faster and
is expected to spread another round of showers and storms northward
across Argentina late Thursday into next Sunday with moderate to
locally heavy rain. The operational GFS and ensembles look drier in
the 11-15 day period with near to below normal rainfall expected.
Across Brazil, A slow-moving front will lead to scattered showers and
storms from RGS to SP and MGDS on Friday and Saturday. Dry weather
will return to RGS and SC on Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and
storms will return to RGS and SC for Tuesday and Wednesday, then
drying out again Thursday through next Saturday. Another front can
bring rain to RGS and SC next Friday. Parana, SP, and MGDS will have
scattered showers and thunderstorms through next Thursday, then
largely dry next Friday and Saturday. Showers and storms may return to
Parana, SP, and MGDS next Sunday. A few showers and storms are likely
across Mato Grosso and Goias on Friday with Minas Gerias remaining
mainly dry. More numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely from
Minas Gerias to Mato Grosso from Saturday through next weekend. Most
modeling continue to show overall favorable growing conditions across
the Brazilian croplands in the 11-15 day period with close to normal
rainfall in many areas and no extreme temperatures being shown.
A slow-moving front will lead to light to moderate rainfall across
northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland on Friday. Another
front will bring welcomed rain to southeastern Australia on Thursday.
Another front will lead to more widespread rain across southeast
Australia this weekend into Monday.
A weak front will lead to a few light showers across southwest
Australia on Friday, then dry again over the weekend into early next
Dry weather across South Africa on Friday will favor maize
planting. Scattered rains this weekend into early next week will slow
fieldwork while maintaining moisture levels for already sown crops.
Widespread moderate to heavy rain and snow fell across western Ukraine
over the past few days with additional light rain and snow likely
across western Ukraine on Friday. The remainder of the western FSU
will be dry and chilly through Friday. Most of Ukraine and the western
FSU will be drier than normal with near to below normal temperatures
this weekend through next week.