Commodity Highlights

June 19, 2013

Dry conditions will continue throughout the Midwest corn and soybean belt once again today, favoring the last of the late-season planting across the north and field work elsewhere across the region. A warm front will bring the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through this weekend from Iowa into Minnesota and Wisconsin, while very spotty precipitation is expected elsewhere. A storm track will continue to favor some rain across northern parts of this region through next week, but below-normal rainfall is expected south of I-80 with above normal temperatures across parts of Iowa and Missouri with above normal temperatures.

A relatively dry outlook is expected across the Hard Red Winter Wheat areas through next week. The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur today from Nebraska into Kansas and parts of Oklahoma. A warm front will produce scattered thunderstorms across the north on Thursday into early Friday, while a building ridge will result in drier than normal conditions across Texas and Oklahoma through this weekend. Additional rainfall would be beneficial in reducing rainfall deficits and improving crop quality.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms across the Canadian Prairies will continue through Friday, with much of the region from southern Alberta to southern Manitoba receiving between 0.50 and 1.00 inch of rain with locally heavier amounts possible. With above normal rainfall having already occurred so far this month, additional rainfall will result in more planting delays. A brief dry spell is expected in this area early next week, but the potential for more rainfall during the second half of next week could cause a few more delays.

In the tropics, Tropical Depression #2 is moving through the Bay of Campeche today, and has a brief window of time for strengthening to occur. It is possible that this system may become reach minimal tropical storm intensity before making another landfall near Veracruz on Thursday. The primary impact from this system will be several inches of rain which will cause flooding problems as well as some mudslides in the higher terrain to the east of Mexico City through Friday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Leepi is located to the east of Taiwan in the Western Pacific and is expected to gain some strength as it moves northward towards southwestern Japan over the next couple of days. The storm system is expected to weaken and turn to the east as it interacts with a frontal boundary on Thursday, but a few inches of rain are expected across the southern half of Japan which can cause some flooding problems.

Across India, the rain from the monsoon will not be quite as widespread or as intense as what occurred late last week into early this week, but locally heavier downpours can still cause more flooding concerns towards the coast from Gujarat into Karnataka and Kerala, as well as northeastern India from West Bengal into Orissa. Another surge in moisture is expected this weekend and into early next week, which will cause more flooding concerns across central parts of India. The heavier than normal rainfall is expected to slow planting efforts, as many fields have become flooded across the region.

In Argentina, dry conditions are likely to persist across Argentina over the next 7-10 days. Farther north, the potential for some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will occur across parts of central Brazil, specifically MGDS into Parana and SC where rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over the next 7 days. The northern croplands of Brazil will remain seasonably warm and dry however, favoring field work in Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais.

A storm system will bring heavy downpours and the potential for damaging winds and hail to parts of western and central Europe through Thursday. Areas which may be hardest hit include northeastern France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the western half of Germany. Rainfall amounts of around 0.50 of an inch will be widespread, with some downpours producing 1-2 inches of rain. Localized flooding can occur, and some delays in field work can also be expected. Conditions will improve slightly this weekend, but another storm system will produce lighter rainfall across this region later Saturday into Sunday.

Showers will continue across the UK through this weekend, which will slow planting efforts across the region. A second storm system will be slow to leave the region on Monday and Tuesday, but some improvements are expected in the forecast later in the week as high pressure builds eastward from the Atlantic.